Plotting Seasonality and Correlation

This tutorial focuses on 3 functions for visualizing time series diagnostics:

ACF Diagnostics: plot_acf_diagnostics()
Seasonality Diagnostics: plot_seasonal_diagnostics()
STL Diagnostics: plot_stl_diagnostics()

Libraries

Run the following code to set up for this tutorial.

library(dplyr)
library(timetk)

# Setup for the plotly charts (# FALSE returns ggplots)
interactive <- TRUE

Correlation Plots

Grouped ACF Diagnostics

m4_hourly %>%
    group_by(id) %>%
    plot_acf_diagnostics(
        date, value,               # ACF & PACF
        .lags = "7 days",          # 7-Days of hourly lags
        .interactive = interactive
    )

Grouped CCF Plots

walmart_sales_weekly %>%
    select(id, Date, Weekly_Sales, Temperature, Fuel_Price) %>%
    group_by(id) %>%
    plot_acf_diagnostics(
        Date, Weekly_Sales,        # ACF & PACF
        .ccf_vars    = c(Temperature, Fuel_Price),   # CCFs
        .lags        = "3 months",    # 3 months of weekly lags
        .interactive = interactive
    )

Seasonality

Seasonal Visualizations

taylor_30_min %>%
    plot_seasonal_diagnostics(date, value, .interactive = interactive)

Grouped Seasonal Visualizations

m4_hourly %>%
    group_by(id) %>%
    plot_seasonal_diagnostics(date, value, .interactive = interactive)

STL Diagnostics

m4_hourly %>%
    group_by(id) %>%
    plot_stl_diagnostics(
        date, value,
        .frequency = "auto", .trend = "auto",
        .feature_set = c("observed", "season", "trend", "remainder"),
        .interactive = interactive)

Learning More

My Talk on High-Performance Time Series Forecasting

Time series is changing. Businesses now need 10,000+ time series forecasts every day.

High-Performance Forecasting Systems will save companies MILLIONS of dollars. Imagine what will happen to your career if you can provide your organization a “High-Performance Time Series Forecasting System” (HPTSF System).

I teach how to build a HPTFS System in my High-Performance Time Series Forecasting Course. If interested in learning Scalable High-Performance Forecasting Strategies then take my course. You will learn:

Time Series Machine Learning (cutting-edge) with Modeltime - 30+ Models (Prophet, ARIMA, XGBoost, Random Forest, & many more)
NEW - Deep Learning with GluonTS (Competition Winners)
Time Series Preprocessing, Noise Reduction, & Anomaly Detection
Feature engineering using lagged variables & external regressors
Hyperparameter Tuning
Time series cross-validation
Ensembling Multiple Machine Learning & Univariate Modeling Techniques (Competition Winner)
Scalable Forecasting - Forecast 1000+ time series in parallel
and more.

Unlock the High-Performance Time Series Forecasting Course

Matt Dancho